Shake N Bake: Bull Market Edition

I’m a 90s kid. Big, loud comedy is baked into my DNA.

Jim Carrey, Adam Sandler, and Chris Farley, that whole era shaped my humor.

But Talladega Nights sits in a tier of its own.

Every line in that movie is quotable. 

The baby Jesus prayer, the crepes scene, “If you’re not first, you’re last,” the invisible fire, all of it.

But nothing beats the “Shake N Bake” move.

For the uninitiated:

Ricky Bobby and his teammate Cal Naughton Jr. pull off their signature slingshot maneuver where Cal drops back, catches the draft, and then slingshots Ricky ahead to blow past the field and take the lead.

It’s chaotic, it’s stupid, it’s glorious, and it works way more often than it should.

And honestly?

That’s exactly what the market is doing to the bears this week.

In bull markets, true downside follow-through is rare.

Breakdowns happen — but far more often than not, they fail.

And when they fail, they turn into these big, goofy, Talladega-Nights-style Shake N Bake reversals where the bears think they have the move…
…only to get slingshotted by momentum right back into the guardrail.

That’s what we just watched.

Last week was the “drop back and catch the draft” moment.

This week is the Ricky Bobby “I’m going fast again!” moment.

You Can See It All Over the Market

• VIX is plummeting.
• Up days are finally seeing follow-through again.
• Breadth is “thrusting,” not dying.
• Failed breakdowns everywhere.
• And, of course….Housing.....The one corner of the market I never shut up about.

Look at ITB/XHB:

Break below the 200-day → immediate slingshot back above.

RSI dipped, flipped, and reclaimed 50 — classic shift back to bull control.

That’s textbook bull-market behavior.

You don’t get clean breakdowns.

You get fakeouts that turn into fuel.

Is this guaranteed to stick? Obviously not.

But I don’t get paid to predict, I get paid to play the hand I’m dealt.

And right now, the table is showing:

• Tradeable lows
• Failed breakdowns
• Breadth improvement

That’s Shake N Bake energy where the Bears get cooked. 

Anyway, that’s my two cents.