By Monday morning, the narratives were flying, and like clockwork, a lot of people chased price on emotion instead of process.
I’ll be upfront. Venezuela geopolitics is not my area of expertise.
I’m not going to pretend eight hours on Twitter turned me into a macro energy analyst.
That’s not my game. My game is price.
And price has been very clear.
Energy is STILL Stuck In A Box
Look at the XLE chart.
Strip away the headlines. Strip away the opinions.
Energy has been in a sideways range for over three years.
Every rally into the upper band gets sold. Every dip into support gets bought. Rinse. Repeat.
That's leadership. That's not a breakout. That's the market telling you it has no strong opinion.
When a sector is range-bound, narratives feel intelligent but they are usually expensive.
Chasing energy inside this range has been fool’s gold for years, and this week was no different.
Until price resolves out of the range, all the pontification is a waste of time.
Time that could be spent on a date night with your wife, throwing a ball with your kids, or doing literally anything else.
And here’s the part people really miss.
Even If Energy Breaks Out, There’s No Rush
Let’s assume energy does break out. Cleanly. Convincingly. Above the range.
That does not automatically mean it’s outperforming the market.
Now look at the XLE vs. SPY chart.
Relative performance is in a well-defined downtrend. Lower highs. Lower lows. Price below its falling 40-week average. And the RSI is doing exactly what weak relative trends do, sitting comfortably below 50.
If you’re a trend follower and you’re pounding the table on energy leadership right now, the math doesn’t support you.
This isn’t me being stubborn or anti-energy.
I’ll be a believer when the evidence shows up.
On an absolute basis, I want to see XLE hold above the range, not poke it for a day and fail again.
On a relative basis, I want to see XLE vs. SPY reclaim 50 RSI and stay there for more than a week.
Not a tag. Not a tweet-worthy spike. Sustained strength.
