The Bitcoin "Bubble"

I was in Philly this week.

There’s just something about that city - you’re hit with the weight of history and how important it is.

History helps us learn from the past, gain perspective, and avoid making the same emotional mistakes again and again.

So while I was there, I started thinking about the history of market bubbles.

They’re always part of the conversation, especially when it comes to Bitcoin.

I pulled out The Triumph of Contrarian Investing by Ned Davis.

There’s a table in there listing some of the biggest bubbles in market history.

And one concept stuck with me: You never really know it’s a bubble until after.

That says it all.

Because if you can’t know ahead of time, then price becomes your best guide.

Not headlines. Not narratives. Not whoever is yelling loudest on Twitter.

Just structure.

And when I look at Bitcoin’s structure?

• It’s survived multiple 70% drawdowns.
• It’s absorbed regulation, fraud, and fear.
• It’s built a massive base.
• And now it’s knocking on the door of all-time highs again.

That’s not how most bubbles behave.

Bubbles don’t give you this many chances.

They rise fast. They die faster.

Bitcoin?

Still here. Still trending. Still evolving.

Could it be a bubble? Sure!

But history shows guessing bubbles is a great way to be loud and wrong.

I’d rather ride the trend than pretend I know the future.

Let the experts keep calling tops.

They’ve nailed 200 of the last 5 bubbles.

Anyways, that’s my two cents.