In the current post-election year of the presidential cycle, the S&P 500 has stayed strong through a period that’s usually weak.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The chart shows two lines comparing the S&P 500’s average post-election-year performance since 1950 (red) and its 2025 performance through late October (green).
The Takeaway: The S&P 500 just skipped the seasonal weakness that usually shows up between August and September.
In post-election years, stocks often lose momentum in that window before recovering into year-end.
Not this time.
The market stayed strong when it normally softens, a clear show of strength.
When a cycle doesn’t follow its usual pattern, it says something about the underlying trend. This market continues to show resilience and steady demand, even during a phase when seasonality would normally act as a headwind.
Now we’re entering the months that historically favor the bulls.
November and December are, on average, the strongest stretch of the post-election year.
With trend strength already in place, this backdrop adds a tailwind, not a headwind.
Strong markets bend the seasonal rules. That’s what this one just did.
Cycles guide the crowd, but trends pay the bills. And if strength carries through November and December, it won’t just be a seasonal rally, it’ll confirm that the bulls still have control.
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