Today's number is... 38

38 is how many Golden Crosses — where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day — have triggered in the S&P 500 since 1950. 

The most recent signal was just yesterday.

Here’s the chart and stats table:

Let's break down what the chart and table show:

• The blue and red lines are the 50-day and 200-day moving averages of the S&P 500 Index.
• The gray lines mark each Golden Cross in the S&P 500 since 1950.
• The table displays the average forward returns following all 38 Golden Crosses over the past 75 years. 

The Takeaway: Golden Crosses are a bullish tailwind, not a contrarian fade.

The signal just triggered — not in fear, but in strength. Price is near all-time highs.

They don’t guarantee gains, but they tip the odds meaningfully in favor of higher prices.

Across all 38 signals, the median one-year return is +13.0%, with 81% of outcomes finishing in the green. 

Average returns build steadily over time: 1.2% after 21 days...

Today's number is... 6

We’re 6 months into 2025, and the S&P 500 just closed at an all-time high… up 5.49% YTD.

But under the surface, it’s a very different story.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• Each bubble represents a stock in the S&P 500, plotted by 2025 Year-To-Date performance (y-axis).
• Green bubbles = gain in 2025.
• Red bubbles  = loss in 2025.
• Bubble size = market cap.
• Stocks are grouped by sector (x-axis).

The Takeaway: At the halfway mark, the surface looks strong, but the internals tell a different story. 

Just 222 stocks in the S&P 500 have outperformed the index so far in 2025. That means 281 are lagging behind. 

The average stock is up only 3.95%, well below the index itself. 

This gap highlights narrow leadership, with a small group of large-cap winners doing most of the heavy lifting.

Industrials are packed with winners, led by names like HWM, which is up more than 60% this year. 

In Technology, WDC is one...

Today's number is... 4

That’s how many times the S&P 500 has closed at an all-time high in 2025, with the 4th one coming on Friday.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line is the S&P 500 index daily price.
• The gray vertical lines mark every day the index closed at an all-time high.

The Takeaway: All-time highs tend to freak people out. 

The instinct is to take profits, wait for a pullback, or assume a top is near. 

But history says that’s usually the wrong move.

After hitting a fresh high, the market continues to rise more often than not. One month after an ATH, the S&P is higher about 60% of the time. That jumps to 68% at three months, 73% at six, and 72% after a full year. The median 12-month return is a solid +8.8%.

In other words, a new high isn’t a warning sign.

It’s often a green light. 

Markets don’t top just because they’ve “gone too far.” 

Most major bull runs are powered by strings of fresh highs, not stopped by them....