Today's number is... 437 

We’ve already seen 437 days where the S&P 500 moved ±1% in the 2020s — and the decade’s only halfway done.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue bars is the S&P 500 ±1% days by decade.
• The gray bar is the average S&P 500 ±1% days by decade.
• The red bar is the S&P 500 ±1% days in the 2020s.

The Takeaway:

To put that in perspective, the average full decade — from the 1950s through to the 2010s — logged around 504 of these big-swing days. We’re already at 437, and there’s still nearly five years to go.

At this pace, the 2020s are set to become the most volatile decade in modern market history.

Not because of one-off shocks or extreme crashes — but because of the sheer frequency of large daily moves.

Historically, that kind of volatility hasn’t ended well.

More swings usually mean more stress.

But the 2020s? So far, they’re bucking that trend.

Despite all the whiplash,...

Today's number is... 11

All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 are now trading above their 50-day moving averages — something we haven’t seen since October 14th, 2024.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The black line in the bottom panel shows the number of S&P 500 sectors above their 50-day moving average.

The Takeaway: From defensives like Utilities and Staples, to high-flying Tech and Communication Services, every corner of the market is participating.

This kind of broad strength doesn’t come around often.

When all 11 sectors are trending above their 50-day moving averages, it signals a healthy, unified advance.

Not just a rally carried by a few mega-caps doing the heavy lifting. 

That kind of strength raises the obvious question: what typically happens next?

Over the past few decades, this “11 out of 11” signal has usually led to positive forward returns — though...

Today's number is... 83

We’ve now seen 83 consecutive trading days where the 3-month rolling fund flow for the Russell 2000 (IWM) has been negative — a stretch small caps haven’t experienced since mid-2019.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The green and red candlesticks in the top panel show the price of the Russell 2000.
• The green and red line in the bottom panel shows the rolling 3-month net fund flows for the Russell 2000.

The Takeaway: Nobody wants small caps right now.

And that’s exactly why I’m watching them.

Negative flows for this long isn’t just rare — it’s a clear sign of bearish sentiment.

Historically, when flows dry up like this, it reflects a market that’s been abandoned… and often sets the stage for a reversal.

But it’s not just fund flows.

Short interest in small caps is near 18-month highs.

Traders are leaning heavily against the space — and that kind of crowding rarely ends quietly.

It has also been 899 days since IWM last reached an all-time high.