58% of S&P 500 stocks made 20-day new highs yesterday.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
The black line in the bottom panel shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks at 20-day highs.
The red line in the bottom panel is the trigger for a breadth thrust.
The gray shading highlights when in a breadth thrust regime.
The Takeaway: Market participation is heating up!
Yesterday, my favorite breadth thrust officially fired.
The breadth thrust I am talking about is when 55% or more of the S&P 500 stocks reach a 20-day new high.
Yesterday, we saw 58% of S&P 500 stocks making 20-day new highs,
This means we have entered a breadth thrust regime that lasts one year.
It’s not an all-clear signal or a guarantee that the market will go up, but this breadth thrust regime points to healthy market leadership conditions and...
In 2025, we’re in historic territory for bearish sentiment.
We’ve now seen 14 consecutive weeks where AAII Bears have outnumbered AAII Bulls.
And it gets even more extreme with the AAII Bears, which have stayed above 50% for 11 straight weeks.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The red line in the top panel shows the number of consecutive weeks where AAII Bears > AAII Bulls.
The red line in the bottom panel tracks the number of consecutive weeks where AAII Bears have remained above 50%.
The Takeaway: This is a prolonged period of pessimism that deserves attention. We have seen 14 consecutive weeks during which the AAII Bears have outnumbered the AAII Bulls, marking the 5th longest stretch of bearish sentiment on record.
The extreme data does not stop there; we have also seen that for the past 11 straight weeks, the percentage of AAII Bears has exceeded 50%. This level of bearish sentiment has never persisted for this length of time before.
Gold has been in an uptrend for the past 358 trading days, marking the 8th-longest trend since the 1970s.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The black line in the upper panel indicates the price of gold. The blue line represents the 50-day moving average, while the red line shows the 200-day moving average of gold.
The black bars in the bottom panel indicate days when the 50-day average is greater than the 200-day average.
The Takeaway: To clarify, I identify a strong uptrend when the 50-day moving average is above the 200-day moving average. Currently, gold is experiencing one of the longest uptrends in the past 60 years, ranking as the eighth longest overall so far. At this point, there are no signs of this trend slowing down, as it continues to move upward and to the right on the chart. Therefore, it's difficult to be pessimistic about gold at this time.
However, Right now the 50-day moving average is 12.4% above the 200-day moving average. The last time the trend...
