The Sunday Stalk List | Ep. 23

Sunday Stalk List | Ep 23

Welcome back to The Sunday Stalk List.

Every weekend, I review hundreds if not thousands of charts across U.S. indices, global markets, breadth, sentiment, and intermarket relationships.

And now I’m opening up my stalk list.

The names that stood out the most from my review.

This Week’s Theme: The Ugly, The Messy, The Saviors

The markets are messy right now. 

I ripped through the charts and the picture isn’t really improving, but it’s not getting much worse either. 

We’re stuck in this muddling middle where Industrials and Financials are chopping sideways while other areas quietly start to break down.

I talked about lines in the sand, and a lot of areas are slipping below them. 

I talked about a show-me market, and right now the market isn’t showing much of anything.

This isn’t “the world is ending.” It’s just not clean. 

But there is a potential savior on deck.

Nvidia reports Wednesday, and that alone could shift the entire tone of the market… again.

Let’s get into it.

Breadth - "The Market of Stocks"

Breadth is something I keep an eye on every week. 

The "Market of Stocks" really shows the health of the underlying market. 

The index fails to tell the whole story when it's extremely concentrated within Tech. 

 Short-term offense is still weak.
Discretionary, Tech, Comm Services, Industrials, Financials… none showed real improvement on the 5- or 20-day. That whole quadrant is stuck in the mud.

Short-term defense is the only place that improved.
Health Care, Staples, and a bit of Energy held up better. That’s strength, but it’s the wrong kind if you want a true expansion.

Intermediate-term trends didn’t confirm any shift.
The 50- and 100-day columns didn’t pick up enough offensive participation to change the character of the tape.

That leaves breadth in a shaky spot.
Better behavior in defensive corners, weaker behavior in offensive ones. Not outright bearish…just not the structure that fuels a sustained bull leg.

You can’t build a rally leaning on defense. Until offensive sectors start showing up in these shorter-term lookbacks, the breadth backdrop stays fragile.

The Ugly, The Messy, The Saviors 

The Ugly

$ITB & $XHB - Housing

Housing is pinned under the 200-day with RSI living comfortably in a bearish regime. 

This is an orderly downtrend, not capitulation, which makes it hard to get constructive. 

Bulls need to defend the 200-day with urgency or this remains firmly in the ugly bucket.

$IBIT - Bitcoin 

A clean sequence of failed breakout, failed recovery, and sharp downside follow-through. 

This is classic risk-off behavior from a risk-on asset. It needs a fast repair or Bitcoin remains a signal that risk appetite is fading.

$IGV - Software 

Software mirrors Bitcoin: failed breakout, failed recovery, and now sitting right on a confluence of support. 

One candle doesn’t fix the structure. Bulls need follow-through immediately or this stays on the wrong side of the trend.

$XRT - Retail 

Another failed breakout and rollover. 

When you scan thousands of charts, this pattern jumps off the page, and retail is one of the clearest examples of risk appetite cooling.

 Until we reclaim that prior high zone, it’s stuck firmly in the ugly camp.

The Messy 

$XLF - Financials 

Perfect chop. No trend, no direction, and no edge. We wait for a resolution above or below the range before giving this any weight.

$XLI - Industrials 

Industrials are in the same boat. The longer the range persists, the more violent the eventual move, but until then there’s nothing actionable. 

Uptrend intact, momentum absent.

$XLE - Energy and Yields 

Energy bottoming talk is loud, but zoom out and XLE has been dead money for years. The bigger issue is yields: if TNX is set to fall, it’s hard to see energy breaking out cleanly. Something has to give in this relationship.

The Saviors 

$NVDA — Nvidia

Earnings Wednesday. The stock is sitting right on breakout AVWAP and looks as coiled as anything in tech. 

If Nvidia rips, it can single-handedly power software, semis, and the entire A.I. risk complex.

$AMZN — Amazon

A potential failed breakout, but still holding the key support zone with RSI holding its bullish regime. 

If buyers show up here, Amazon can be a major stabilizer for discretionary and the indices

$AAPL — Apple

Clean consolidation through time after a prior breakout. Buyers continue to defend the former highs and nothing about the structure is broken. 

Apple holding firm is quietly one of the best things happening under the surface.

$TSLA — Tesla

Tesla is sitting right on a major polarity zone near 400. If it holds, consumer discretionary gets a huge tailwind. 

It’s still a “vibe stock” and a strong Tesla usually means a strong risk-on tape.

My Two Cents 

Look, if you’re gonna read my analysis you have to understand it’s always gonna have nuance. 

I’m gonna share the bearish data. I’m gonna share the bullish data. 

I’m not here to market to you or get political and sit on one side of the fence and pretend the other side is full of idiots or fearmongers.

The reality is the bearish evidence is growing and the bullish evidence is shrinking. 

We’re still in a long-term uptrend, but the short-term is shaky. 

You can see the ugly. You can see the messy. And you can see exactly where the saviors could come from.

If you’re gonna press bets here, you have to use clean risk-reward levels and you have to respect your stops. 

Sure, you can be opportunistic to a degree, but we’re also trying to keep the money we’ve been stacking since the April lows.

Cheers.

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