The Sunday Stalk List | Ep. 24

The Bounce(s)

By Larry Thompson

November 23, 2025

Sunday Stalk List | Ep 24

Welcome back to The Sunday Stalk List.

Every weekend, I review hundreds if not thousands of charts across U.S. indices, global markets, breadth, sentiment, and intermarket relationships.

And now I’m opening up my stalk list.

The names that stood out the most from my review.

This Week’s Theme: The Bounce(s)

The markets are messy right now, but The Bounce finally showed up.

I ripped through the charts this weekend and the downside follow-through we saw early in the week set the stage for a clean Bounce on Friday.

A lot of charts are sitting right at the bottom of their drawdowns, right where bounces usually begin.

And here’s the truth.

No one...I mean NO ONE, knows if this Bounce turns into a trend resumption.

But if the bulls are still alive, this is where they step up. This is where they throw a punch.

Let’s get into it.

Breadth - "The Market of Stocks"

Breadth is something I keep an eye on every week.

The "Market of Stocks" really shows the health of the underlying market.

The index fails to tell the whole story when it's extremely concentrated within Tech.

A Bounce(s) Inside a Correction

Breadth improved this week, but it improved in the exact way it does during a correction bounce. The short-term quadrant lit up green across almost every sector, but the intermediate-term readings barely moved, and the long-term picture didn’t expand at all.

This isn’t thrust behavior. It’s a reset.

Short-term: Offense ripped hard off washed-out levels, but that’s what happens after a quick selloff. It’s strength, not leadership.
Intermediate-term: Still shaky. XLK actually slipped on the 20-day, and most offensive sectors only saw small upticks. The bounce hasn’t translated into trend improvement.
Long-term: Holding, but not building. No broad expansion here yet.

And the most important takeaway? Defense never lost control.

Staples, Health Care, and Utilities stayed firm on the longer-term readings and continued to show relative stability. Energy, the one offensive standout, saw a major week-over-week collapse.

Short-term hopeful. Intermediate-term shaky. Still a defensive-leaning tape.

The Bounce(s)

We’re finally at a spot where some tactical trades make sense. Breadth washed out. A lot of stocks hit the bottom of their ranges. And we’re seeing the first signs of life. These are the kinds of bounces you look for when the market’s been correcting.

$XLK - Technology

In a market-cap weighted world, it starts and ends with Tech.

It’s a third of the S&P 500, and if we’re going to get a real year-end rally, XLK has to show some follow through here.

We’re sitting right on the AVWAP breakout zone. A close back above that level and I’ll be swinging the bat on the long side.

At this point, follow through isn’t a luxury. It’s a requirement.

$ITB & $XHB - Housing

We hit this chart every week for a reason. The implications for the broader market are real. Both ITB and XHB are bouncing right off the 200-day, and reclaiming that level with follow-through would open the door for a strong year-end run in housing.

Zooming out, it’s a promising setup, but we need to see the follow-through.

$ARKK - ARKK

So many charts look exactly like this. Fast drawdown. Roughly 20 percent off the highs. Down into logical support.

This is the classic spot where speculative stuff either revives or rolls over for good.

The risk/reward is clean. Keep this one front of mind for a swing attempt.

$XRT - Retail

Retail is sitting right on potential support near the 200-day with a bullish RSI divergence showing some life.

This is a perfect snapshot of the entire market. The trend is damaged, yes, but if the bulls are going to fix it, this is where they grab the hard hats and get to work.