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Why I Added a New Position in CrowdStrike

Process > Prediction

I added a new position in CrowdStrike today.

It checks all three boxes in my process.

Let's get into it. 

Box #1: Relative Strength Where It Matters

When you look at CrowdStrike $CRWD versus iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF $IGV, the relative trend is clean. 

Higher highs. Higher lows. A steady uptrend over time.

That tells me this stock continues to outperform its peer group on a relative basis. 

Even during this recent pullback, it never truly lost that leadership. 
 

Box #2: Momentum (RSI) That Refused to Break 

During corrections, strong stocks behave differently than weak ones.

CrowdStrike never got meaningfully oversold. Instead, momentum stalled. RSI stopped going down and started compressing. 

That’s a common trait in stocks that are bottoming within a larger bull market structure.

Think of it like a coil. Energy builds as downside momentum fails to accelerate. When RSI reclaims 50, that’s often the release.

Today, we saw that confirmation.

I don’t need perfection. I just need evidence that sellers are losing control.

Box #3: Absolute Price Is What Pays Us

Relative strength and momentum help frame the idea, but price is the scoreboard.

This chart does a few important things at once.

(1) We have a falling wedge pressing directly into the 200-day moving average. 

(2) We have well-defined pivot highs from early 2025 lining up near the same zone. 

(3) And most importantly, we now have a breakout through that compression.

Risk is defined. If price fails back below this level, I’m wrong. That’s the deal.

Upside is simple. If software regains momentum, the path back toward prior highs is open. If not, the loss is controlled.

That asymmetry is what I’m buying.

No Prediction, Just Execution

Trading is not about predicting the future. 

It’s about building a system you can run again and again. 

You won’t win every hand, but over time, the math works in your favor if the process is sound.

This trade is simply an execution of that process.

Anyway, that’s my two cents.


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