February 15th marks the historical high-water point of the month.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The chart displays the average February return path.
The Takeaway: I track seasonal charts for context. They are averages. They do not drive trades. Price does. But the calendar still sets the backdrop. It can lean with you or lean against you.
February 15th is the high-water mark. That is where the average February path peaks.
February tends to do its upside work early. The month builds into mid-month. After that, the trend shifts lower into the end of the month.
We are now inside that stretch.
The S&P 500 sits at -1.4% so far in February 2026. The usual early push never showed up. The index did not ride into a mid-month high, and now the calendar flips negative. After the 15th, the average path trends lower. The market is entering a seasonal headwind while already on the back foot. If bulls cannot reclaim control here, the late-month drift has room to press the downside.
Mid-month is the high-water mark. The back half is the test. Do bulls take it back, or does February do what it usually does?
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