Let’s keep this super simple: Gas prices spiking higher is bad for consumer stocks. Not only consumer stocks, but consumer stocks in particular.
Here’s a 1mo chart of average gas prices in the US, per GasBuddy:
Here’s a 1mo chart of Consumer Discretionary and Staple stocks:
Gas Prices Can’t be Hidden
The average American fills up their car every 9 days. Even with ¼ of the country working from home and EVs the average has only moved from once a week to 9 days. The difference hardly matters. What matters is the rate of change. I’ve been out of the country for a week. The next time I fill up my car it’s going to cost 20% more. I don’t spend a lot of time sweating price tags, but 20% matters. It’s noticeable. It’s annoying. It’s enough to make me want to spend less elsewhere.
Rising oil prices are bad for the entire economy. The price of everything rises. For our purposes in consumer stocks you don’t need to overthink it. Gas moving higher this fast trumps earnings reports from retailers. A week ago I cautioned that “Beat and Guide Lower” was going to be the theme for Q1. That’s normal. What isn’t normal is having companies beat and have no idea where to guide, because none of them control gas or oil prices.
That’s why investors are “selling the news” in reaction to almost every earnings report. Because the only news that matters is beyond management’s control.
The Action Plan
Last week I gave Portfolio Members my Wartime Action Plan. It’s pretty simple. Gather cash, stick to what you understand, and make lists of companies you want to buy when the dust settles.
Years ago I would have been trying to day trade from my vacation desk. That’s a sucker’s play. Oil will find a top. I don’t know at what price but, based on the velocity of the gains, the timing is likely sooner rather than later.
In the meantime, good stocks are being punished more than they should be. Companies I want to own more of are seeing their charts come back to support. The Portfolio has the highest level of cash it’s ever had, and I’m looking to put it to work.
It’s too late to short, too early to buy and just the right time to be browsing. I’ll be back next week, tan, fit, and well rested, looking to put some money to work.
