Wait For The Pitch

The Market was in Saquon Barkley mode since the march lows. 

We were able to catch some of it - but now comes the hard part.

Being patient. 

After a rally of this magnitude it can seem like the time to chase. It's not.

Here's the simple data point that frames the whole conversation: 

SPX New Highs vs. New Lows

New highs are thin with only 4 on the close.

That's not a breakout tape. That's a consolidation tape.

This is not a market you want to chase. 

The entries that made sense were in March, when breadth was washed out and the risk/reward was skewed heavily in your favor. 

Those who bought into panic got paid. 

Now that same tape is asking you to pay up for the privilege of being late and the data says that's a losing proposition.

The playbook is simple: let consolidations resolve.

When a stock that's been sitting in a tight range finally breaks out and the broad NH–NL backdrop starts expanding again - that's your pitch. 

With earnings mania here, it's even more reason to wait for the right pitches.

This week alone, the majority of the Mag 7 report along with some of the largest weights in the S&P 500. 

We're talking Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple all on deck. 

Add Mastercard, Visa, Eli Lilly, Merck, Qualcomm, and Chipotle and you have a week that can reprice entire sectors overnight.

The bull market is still intact. 

Offense is still on the field. 

We're just not going to swing at sliders in the dirt. 

Anyway, that’s my two cents.

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