You feel smart because you found a crack in the wall.
The problem is, markets are designed to make that game painful.
The S&P 500 goes up roughly 70% of the time.
And 100% of the time there are “problems.”
Some you see.
But most are “problems” we’re too dumb to even know existed.
That’s the part people forget.
THERE ARE ALWAYS “PROBLEMS.”
Always something that “should” take the market down.
But in Bull Markets, you have to view “problems” as innocent until proven guilty.
That doesn’t mean we ignore them.
It just means we don’t trust them more than we trust the overall backdrop and price action.
Because here’s what happens to a lot of people.
They spot a legitimate issue, then immediately make the leap that the market MUST care.
That’s where the damage gets done.
Price is what pays.
Not your thesis. Not your intelligence.
Not your ability to write a 14 tweet thread explaining why something is broken.
If the “problem” truly matters, price will eventually reflect it.
And when it does, we can act.
That’s the beauty of technical analysis to me.
You don’t have to play fortune teller.
You don’t have to predict the collapse before everyone else.
You let the market confirm it.
People truly underestimate how dangerous it is trying to outsmart a Bull Market.
You can be “right” about a “problem” while the market keeps climbing.
Meanwhile you sit there waiting for justice like the market owes it to you.
It doesn’t.
The obsession with being “the smartest guy in the room” has probably cost investors more money than almost anything else.
And I get it to some degree.
Hollywood makes movies glorifying the guy who “called the crash.”
What they don’t make movies about are the hundreds of people with no retirement because they spent their lives spotting “problems” the market never cared about.
If you’re here to feel smarter than everyone else, I’d probably find a new passion.
Because this game is not about being the smartest guy in the room.
It’s about making money.
And a lot of people sacrifice the second one chasing the first.
The market does not reward you for spotting “problems” early.
It rewards you for aligning with reality.
So sure, pay attention to “problems.”
Study them.
Respect them.
But view them through the lens of price.
Because in Bull Markets, most “problems” get solved.
