The First Half Had Its Winners. Now Comes The Hard Part 📈
By Grant Hawkridge
July 1, 2026
Today's number is... 94%
One industry has almost doubled through the first half of 2026. That industry is Semiconductors.
Here’s the table:
Let's break down what the table shows:
The table ranks the S&P Select Industries by their year-to-date performance through the first half of 2026. Each row lists an industry, while the columns display returns for Q1, April, May, June, Q2 and the full year-to-date period. Green shading represents positive returns, while red shading represents negative returns. Industries are ordered from the strongest year-to-date performer at the top to the weakest at the bottom.
The Takeaway: The first half of 2026 wasn't won by one industry. It was won by the investors who recognised when leadership changed.
The second quarter began with an explosion in April. Semiconductors jumped 49.5%, Computer Hardware gained 21.4%, and Telecom rallied 19.6%. Those moves completely changed the leaderboard. Technology took control and never gave it back. Today, Semiconductors, Computer Hardware and Telecom sit comfortably as the three best-performing industries of the year.
Then there were Semiconductors.
The group has returned 94% year to date. After surging 49.5% in April and another 25.5% in May, it still finished June in positive territory. Buyers never disappeared. They simply stopped chasing at April's pace.
But not every leader kept its crown.
Energy dominated the first quarter, with both Oil & Gas Equipment and Exploration & Production gaining more than 40.0%. Three months later, both industries posted negative returns for Q2.
On the flip side, Software took the opposite path. It rallied 20.6% during the second quarter but remains down 8.3% for the year after losing 23.9% in Q1. Recovering from a deep hole takes time.
The first half wasn't about one industry. It was about money rotating from one leadership group to another while remaining invested in equities. That's the type of behavior you expect to see in a healthy bull market.
I'm already thinking about the second half. Semiconductors have been the biggest winner of the year, but I'm not interested in chasing industries that have already doubled. I'm looking for the next industry quietly climbing the rankings.
Bull markets rarely have just one leader. They pass the baton from one industry to another. I don't need to predict the rotation. I just need to recognize it early.
Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts
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