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Alfonso’s Daily Note

16 Years in the Making

November 21, 2024

Energy stocks have been showing some strength over the past few weeks.

Looking at the large-cap Energy Sector ETF $XLE, the price has been coiling around a key shelf of former highs for the past two years.

 

And when you zoom out on the chart like I’ve done, you’ll notice this base has been forming for the past 16 years!

Buyers have tested this level multiple times, steadily absorbing the overhead supply at the current level.

This kind of action usually comes before a breakout, as bulls build up fuel for the next leg higher.

If XLE breaks out of this massive base, we’re all going to want a lot more energy exposure than we currently have.

As such, I’m getting ready for it and making a wish list of sector leaders.

I think it will happen soon. 100 marks the line in the sand.

Steve and I were discussing...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Textbook Retest in Healthcare

November 20, 2024

The big theme this week is textbook retests. We’re seeing this kind of price action across the board right now.

One that stands out is the large cap healthcare index. 

The healthcare sector is finding its footing after experiencing significant downside pressure in recent weeks.

 

Price is currently testing a critical level of former resistance marked by a shelf of prior cycle highs.

With so much price memory here, this area represents a logical level for XLV to catch a bid.

And so far it is. The bulls are digging in and flipping this old resistance zone into support.  

The line in the sand is $140. As long as XLV holds above this level, I’ll give the bulls the benefit of the doubt. This area offers a great place for a defined risk entry for a potential bounce.

I’m also watching how the smallest and most volatile stocks,...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

BTC Is Back on Top

November 19, 2024

One effective way to identify relative strength is by charting one asset class against another.

This approach helps us position ourselves strategically for the current market environment—and right now, it's all about crypto.

Bitcoin is breaking out of a multi-year base relative to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

 

The ratio is piercing through the upper bounds of its base, suggesting that BTC is ready to reassert its former leadership.

If this breakout...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Digital Payments Are Paying Off

November 18, 2024

This afternoon on Chart Request Live, my friend Patrick and I reviewed some of the standout tickers from the chat.

One group of stocks that really stood out was Digital Payments.

These stocks are on fire, offering favorable setups left and right these days, to the point I would be ashamed not to share some with you.

Before diving into some individual names, here's the Amplify Digital Payments ETF $IPAY:

 

IPAY just completed a textbook rounding bottom formation and is embarking on a new uptrend.

Aside from bellwethers like PayPal or Block $SQ (which I wrote about last week), there are three stocks that catch my attention within this ETF.

...
Alfonso’s Daily Note

Banking on Strength

November 15, 2024

Yesterday I talked about some areas that are struggling to hold onto their post-election gains. The list has grown following today's selloff.

One group that’s been unfazed by this week’s volatility is financials.

Today, let’s flip the script and focus on an industry showing serious resilience.

Banks have been one of the best-performing groups over the past week, positioning themselves as leaders in the current environment.

The S&P Banks ETF $KBE is on the verge of completing a textbook reversal pattern relative to the S&P 500.

 

The ratio is piercing through the upper ends of this base as we speak.

The 200-day moving average has been flat all year but is curling up, suggesting that the trend could be at the early stages of reversing.

...
Alfonso’s Daily Note

Metals Take a Back Seat for Now

November 14, 2024

A week after the election, stocks are now digesting some of their impressive gains. 

Some groups like banks, software, Ark funds, and even energy are holding up the best, while others struggle to hold onto those gains and are now giving it all back.

The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF $XME is a great example of this second group that is losing steam.

 

XME tried to break out from a multi-year base the morning after the election, but was immediately rejected, and has since fallen back into its old...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Bitcoin ETF Breaks all Records

November 13, 2024

Eric Balchunas was on the Morning Show today.

I always love to hear his thoughts as he’s one of the best in business when it comes to ETFs.

He really made a lot of good points today. You can watch the replay here.

One thing that stood out to me was what he said about the new iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF $IBIT.

Eric said that the success in the first year of IBIT is hard to find a sports analogy for. It’s even better than Michael Jordan'...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Solana’s Imminent Breakout

November 11, 2024

Bitcoin is surging toward $90,000.

Memecoins are ripping across the board. 

DOGE is up over 100% since the election.

BTC miners are squeezing higher.

Everyone is talking about shitcoins I’ve never heard of.

NFTs are back.

It’s all working in crypto land right now. As it turns out, the ultimate election trade was in digital assets, and not the traditional market.

...
Alfonso’s Daily Note

Ethereum Joins The Party

November 8, 2024

Crypto stands on the cusp of a major bull run, and the possibility of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 feels more real by the day.

When it comes to the second in command, Ethereum seems ready to join the party.

After months of carving out a short-term reversal base, ETH is flirting with a critical polarity level of around $2,850.

 

If and when we get a decisive breakout about this area, then the path of least resistance will be higher, with a clear shot toward its year-to-date highs near $4,000.

That would ultimately confirm Bitcoin's breakout,...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Small-Caps on Fire

November 7, 2024

With the election behind us, markets seem ready for a year-end rally.

The S&P Small-Cap 600 Index led the way, climbing 6% as it registered its best daily performance since 2020.

 

As you can see, IJR jumped above its prior cycle highs from 2021, appearing, at least for now, to complete a massive base.

I’m looking for some follow-through in the days and weeks ahead to confirm this breakout. 

If we get it, this could be a breakaway gap for the history books. Based on the way it started today, odds favor it being a valid resolution.

If it holds, I think we’re likely to see a rotation into the...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Market Poised for a Year-End Rally

November 5, 2024

Today is Election Day in the U.S., and while the spotlight is on the political arena, this is the perfect time to ignore the noise and focus on what really matters

When it comes to seasonality, some of the best signals that we get are when the market does not follow the historical pattern or seasonal trend.

The chart below shows the S&P 500's average monthly returns during election years.

 

As you can see, we’re leaving the September and October window, which are the two worst months, and entering...