All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 are now trading above their 50-day moving averages — something we haven’t seen since October 14th, 2024.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
The black line in the bottom panel shows the number of S&P 500 sectors above their 50-day moving average.
The Takeaway: From defensives like Utilities and Staples, to high-flying Tech and Communication Services, every corner of the market is participating.
This kind of broad strength doesn’t come around often.
When all 11 sectors are trending above their 50-day moving averages, it signals a healthy, unified advance.
Not just a rally carried by a few mega-caps doing the heavy lifting.
That kind of strength raises the obvious question: what typically happens next?
Over the past few decades, this “11 out of 11” signal has usually led to positive forward returns — though the strength of those returns has varied by decade.
In the 2000s, one-month returns averaged +0.69% with a win rate just over 70%, while three-month gains were more modest at +0.49%, though still positive nearly 77% of the time.
The 2010s saw slightly softer one-month results, averaging +0.36% with a 67% win rate, but stronger performance over three months, averaging +1.82% with a 76% success rate.
The 2020s, however, have shown the most impressive follow-through so far — one-month returns have averaged +2.03% with a nearly 79% win rate, and three-month gains have come in at +2.77% with a win rate north of 85%.
So while this setup isn’t a guarantee of liftoff… it is a meaningful tailwind.
Especially when participation is this widespread.
Is this the start of something bigger — or as good as it gets?
Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts
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