The Nasdaq 100 has logged 6 straight down days — the first streak of this length since 2022.
Here is the table:
Let's break down what the table shows:
The table tracks every Nasdaq 100 down-day streak of 6 or more since 1999.
Each row marks the date and length of the streak.
The columns show forward returns for 1 week, 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 1 year.
The summary at the bottom calculates averages, % positive returns, and the best/worst outcomes across all events.
The Takeaway: Six or more straight down days usually don’t spell lasting damage.
The following 3–4 weeks can stay choppy — average 1-month return is just -0.2% with only 43% positive. But the longer you look out, the odds flip.
Three months later, the average gain is +3.0%. At six months, it’s +7.4%. And one year later, returns average +15.7% with more than 85% of streaks higher.
The two big exceptions are 2000 and 2008 — both deep bear markets where streaks signaled much larger structural damage. Those events skew the averages lower and remind us that context matters. Outside of those breakdown regimes, down streaks have typically marked exhaustion points where sellers run out of fuel and buyers step back in.
Short-term weakness can still persist — sellers don’t vanish overnight.
But history says patience pays if the bigger trend remains intact. The risk is that this isn’t just a pullback, but the early innings of something worse.
So is this another bear unwind — or the launchpad for the next leg higher?
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