Retail Earnings Are Here!

Asked about his Hollywood success, screenwriter William Goldman famously said, “Nobody knows anything.”

This year, Wall Street forecasters face unique challenges: economic data has been unavailable for six weeks, consumer sentiment is at its lowest since the Great Financial Crisis, airlines are canceling Thanksgiving flights, restaurants are missing expectations, and tariff-driven inflation is impacting prices. Despite these signals and the continued strength among high-end consumers, no one can offer more than an educated guess about the current state of the economy.

The market may be near all-time highs, but in terms of the economy, America is driving in the dark with the headlights off and the gas pedal to the floor. None of which got magically fixed when the shutdown officially ended last night. No one knows when the airlines will be back up to speed and the October economic reports might not be released ever.

Which is the bad news. The good news is we’re about to find out everything we need to know about the consumer, for better or worse.

Between now and next Thursday, we will receive earnings reports from Home Depot, Lowe’s, TJX, Target, Gap, and Walmart, the world's largest retailer and private employer. Those 6 companies account for about 1/8 of US retail sales across discount, staples, home goods, impulse items, and general purchasing. If I had to base every investment decision on one economic indicator and predict the direction of interest rates for the next year, I’d choose Walmart’s third-quarter earnings report and guidance.

I’m not just a professional shopper because I know what to look for at the mall. I speak retail as my native tongue, and I’ve spent the last 20 years translating that peculiar lexicon into finance and making money from the conclusions.

I’ve given you my Top 5 stocks for Christmas—Home Depot, Lowe’s, TJX, Target, and Walmart—and told you how to tell a great merchant from a lost chain when you shop. I know that if TJX misses, it’s bad news for Christmas. If Target doesn’t come up with a plan soon, it’s going to become RadioShack's and Walmart’s relationship with ChatGPT is going to be your best indication that all the money being spent on AI is going to pay off anytime soon.

But I’m not going to shout it out in a town square or on Twitter. It's yours exclusively here, as they happen over the Most Important 10 Days of 2025 for stocks. I’ll provide you with reactions, report cards, and translate all the jargon into actionable insights in print and on video.

This is our moment—Buckle up for a hot week of reports!