I'm Not That Guy

If you want someone who’s going to convince you there’s a special trade to put on every day, I’m not that guy.

Authenticity is key and I know the market isn’t throwing the same pitch at us every day.

Some days you swing. Some days you keep the bat on your shoulder.

Right now we’re sitting right below overhead supply on a lot of important charts, and the Fed speaks tomorrow.

That’s an event-driven setup sitting at the top of a range. Nothing about this spot screams edge to me.

Look at Consumer Discretionary (XLY). 

It keeps running into the same wall. Sellers have shown up here before, and until that changes, I’m not pretending this is a high-odds swing point.

Look at RSP, the Equal Weight S&P 500.

Great rebound, but we’re right back where supply has lived all year.

A coin flip at the top of a range isn’t my type of trading, especially when a Fed announcement is the next catalyst.

Sure, the long-term trend is still up and I'm positioned accordingly. 

That’s not what I’m debating. 

The short-term is where the noise lives, and noise around events cuts both ways.

Contraction turns into expansion after markets break out or break down, not while they’re coiling under resistance.

So I’ll keep monitoring the charts from this week’s Sunday Stalk List and let the market pick a direction.

I’m sure something will go up tomorrow. Something always does.

But I’m not here to convince you that you need to click buttons tomorrow just to feel alive.

I’m not that guy.

Anyway, that’s my two cents.