The Clock Just Ran Out On One Of Wall Street’s Strongest Signals ⏳
By Grant Hawkridge
May 14, 2026
Today's number is... 20
The market just lost one of its biggest bullish tailwinds, and most investors probably didn’t even notice.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The top panel displays the S&P 500 in black.
The gray shaded regions highlight periods when the 20-Day High Breadth Thrust regime was active.
The lower panel displays the percentage of S&P 500 stocks making 20-day highs in black.
The red dashed line marks the 55% trigger threshold required to activate a new Breadth Thrust regime.
The Takeaway: One of the market’s strongest bullish environments just expired.
And history says that matters a lot more than most investors realize.
Since 2003, every single 20-Day High Breadth Thrust signal finished higher 12 months later. The average gain was 16.8%.
That is what makes yesterday important.
The Breadth Thrust regime that began on May 12, 2025 just officially expired yesterday after its full 252-day window. One of the market’s strongest bullish environments quietly rolled off the clock.
And the historical difference between being inside and outside these regimes has been massive.
Since January 2005, all net gains in the S&P 500 have occurred during Breadth Thrust regimes.
When the signal was active, the market returned over 650%, and outside those windows, the S&P 500 lost –31.2%.
This changes how I view risk here.
I’m not blindly bearish because the regime expired. Price is still near the highs. But I’m also not assuming the same easy broad participation environment still exists just because the indexes look fine on the surface.
Now I want to see if breadth can expand again.
I want to see more stocks making new highs. More evidence that money is still flowing beneath the surface instead of hiding in just a smaller group of leaders.
If that happens, the clock resets and the bull market stays healthy.
If it doesn’t, the market just lost one of its biggest historical tailwinds while investors are still heavily leaning bullish near the highs.
That is not the type of environment where I want to get complacent.
The market can absolutely keep moving higher from here. But history says the easy money was usually made while this regime was active.
Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts
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