The Market's Most Famous Bearish Signal Isn't Very Bearish ⚠️
By Grant Hawkridge
June 12, 2026
Today's number is… 121
The Hindenburg Omen has become one of the market's most famous bearish signals, but it has triggered 121 times since 1998.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The chart displays the S&P 500 from 1998 through today in black.
Grey vertical lines mark every Hindenburg Omen signal.
The Takeaway: The Hindenburg Omen might be the most famous bearish signal on Wall Street. Looking at this chart, it's hard to understand why.
Since 1998, the signal has triggered 121 times. Some of those signals appeared before major declines. Most didn't. The chart is filled with signals during 2013, 2014, 2017, 2024, and 2025. Those were periods when investors were rewarded for owning stocks, not avoiding them.
That's the problem. A bearish signal should be selective. If it fires every few months, investors eventually stop learning anything useful from it. The Hindenburg Omen has become a warning that warns about almost everything.
The forward returns tell the same story. The S&P 500 averaged a loss of 0.6% after five days, 0.6% after ten days, and 1.5% after one month. Those numbers are hardly catastrophic. One year later, the market was higher 67.9% of the time.
The signal's reputation comes from a handful of famous successes. Investors remember 2008, 2020, and 2022. They forget the dozens of signals that appeared before nothing happened at all.
I don't view the Hindenburg Omen as a bearish signal. I view it as evidence that participation has become messy beneath the surface. Those aren't the same thing. If you're looking for evidence that a bear market is starting, there are far better places to look.
I'm not selling stocks because a Hindenburg Omen appeared on a chart. The signal has spent the last three decades crying wolf. If market conditions begin to deteriorate, I expect to see it in breadth, leadership, and risk appetite long before I see it in a headline about the Hindenburg Omen.
