The Dollar Just Did Something Most Investors Fear 💵
By Grant Hawkridge
June 22, 2026
Today's number is... 52
The US Dollar just made a new 52-week high. Stocks have historically performed better than most investors would expect after similar moves.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The chart displays the US Dollar Index in black.
A green dotted line displays the rolling 52-week high level.
A shaded gray zone highlights a price level that has acted as both support and resistance.
The table displays the S&P 500's forward returns following every new 52-week high in the US Dollar since 1971.
The Takeaway: Most investors see a new high in the US Dollar and immediately assume it's bad news for stocks.
The historical evidence doesn't support that conclusion.
Since 1971, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 9.2% over the following 12 months after the US Dollar made a new 52-week high. Stocks were also higher 63.1% of the time one year later. Those numbers don't scream bearish.
The problem is that investors often focus on the dollar in isolation. Markets don't work that way. A rising dollar can occur during periods of fear and risk aversion. It can also occur when money is flowing toward the United States because growth, earnings, and stock market leadership remain stronger than the rest of the world.
That's why I think we're asking the wrong question.
Instead of asking what the dollar is doing, ask what breadth, leadership, and risk appetite are doing alongside it. A rising dollar with collapsing breadth and defensive leadership is one environment. A rising dollar with expanding participation, strong leadership, and healthy risk appetite is a completely different one.
Right now, the weight of the evidence still leans bullish. New highs continue to expand. New lows remain scarce. Leadership remains concentrated in areas that typically perform well when investors are willing to take risk.
And that's what makes this setup so interesting.
If you're trading the US Dollar itself, the breakout is bullish. The Dollar spent years building a base and has now pushed to a new 52-week high.
Yet stocks continue to behave like they're in a bull market.
Maybe the real lesson isn't that the Dollar is making new highs.
Maybe it's that the rest of the market doesn't seem to care.
Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts
Spencer Israel sits across from the entire analyst network every day, hears more good ideas than any one person could ever trade, and picks the ones he likes most.
The SMTV Portfolio is what happens when he puts $10K of his own money behind those calls.
