Ignore gloomy headlines during the Dog Days of Summer
By Jeff Macke
June 22, 2026
Markets and, by extension, the entire country are taking a breather after a frantic month of Knicks, White House UFC fights, War, Peace and about 50 different earnings releases from consumer companies of every stripe. With my son working as my intern during his summer break from the Naval Academy, I’ve spent the time taking him to malls, Targets, golf courses and Las Vegas for the Greatest Hockey Game I’ve Ever Seen.
It’s something of a soft tradition that the pace on Wall Street slows with the official start of summer. With a slower news flow and empty desks it’s time to tighten up our swings and lower expectations for an extension of the explosive rally we’ve seen since the end of March.
Don’t be a Hero
On the earnings front this week the biggest release will come from cruise juggernaut Carnival which reports tomorrow morning. Carnival is basically already sold out for 2026 so expect analysts to focus on marginal spending by customers already on board. Any weakness will almost certainly lead to waves of headlines announcing the death of spending on by low end consumers in the face of economic uncertainty (a phrase which rolls off my fingers so easily it almost doesn’t feel like garbage).
I don’t care much for Carnival as a stock. Too much leverage and a chart that all but screams “Hanging out at $30”. But I do have two strongly held views on the economy, one based on experience, the other more fundamental.
Fundamentally, the price of gas has dropped over 15% in the last month. The POTUS might go back on forth on the state of the War but commodity markets more or less declared an end to hostilities in May. That bodes well for inflation, generally, though there will be a few bumps along the way to the end of the year as the supply chain fixes itself.
Anecdotally, as mentioned, I spent the summer in casinos, stores, malls and generally “consuming” with my son. I’ve been to packed Aritzia’s, empty Lululemon’s and spent 30 minutes waiting in line to buy $40 faux gold Las Vegas Knights chains. I’ve shopped for surf board wax, tee shirts, and an almost unbelievable amount of food compared to our normal household consumption. Everywhere I’ve gone I’ve seen traffic that makes sense. The consumer isn’t great but there isn’t any sign of the weakness we’ve been told to expect for the last 6 months.
People are shopping. Rationally. Price conscious but in the stores and, as we’ll likely hear tomorrow from Carnival, on vacation. Any headline suggesting otherwise is peddling an agenda.
I’m just here to help you make money.
If you haven’t signed up already the time to do so is now, before we’re chasing these names higher.
