Good Year for the US — But Everyone Else Is Beating It 🗽🐢
September 25, 2025
Today's number is... 12.8%
The United States is up 12.8% year-to-date, which is a solid gain, but the weakest return in my Global Seven-Region Framework.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The chart displays the year-to-date % returns of seven global regional equity ETFs, with each bar representing a specific region.
The Takeaway: The Seven-Region Framework gives a simple, rules-based way to track leadership across the global equity market.
By using seven ETFs that together cover more than 90% of investable market cap, it shows where money and momentum are actually flowing.
Right now, the US is up 12.8% year-to-date. That is a strong return on its own, but every other major region is ahead.
Europe ex-UK leads at 29.3%, Emerging Markets are up 27.0% and Canada is at 24.7%.
This is a reversal of the leadership we have seen for most of the past decade.
International markets are outpacing the US while it grinds higher at a slower pace.
Most investors have missed this move because they remain under-invested outside the US.
Home-country bias has kept portfolios concentrated in US equities even as the rest of the world has outperformed.
The question now is whether the strength abroad can break that bias, attract more capital into international markets, and keep the rally in the rest of the world going.
Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts
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