Bears led the AAII survey for seven weeks. That streak just snapped! The spread is now +2.5 in favor of the Bulls.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The top panel plots AAII Bulls (green) and Bears (red) as weekly readings.
The bottom panel shows the Bull-Bear Spread in black. Readings above zero mean more Bulls than Bears.
The Takeaway: Retail Bears have finally stepped aside.
After seven straight weeks of negative readings, the AAII spread has flipped back to positive.
Bulls now lead by +2.5 points for the first time since the start of August.
This shift isn’t happening on weakness. It’s occurring with the S&P 500 still pressing up near its highs.
That tells us the tape hasn’t cracked… sentiment has.
Retail crowd doubt has been a steady backdrop for months.
In past cycles, these flips often coincide with trend confirmation rather than exhaustion. They mark the point where more investors start reinforcing leadership instead of fighting it.
It’s still early, but the evidence says pessimism is giving way to participation.
That’s when strong trends tend to accelerate, not fade.
With sentiment now flipping, how much fuel is left if retail starts piling in?
Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts
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