One number. One chart. One insight moving markets today.
Leadership Just Lost Its Grip ⚠️
By Grant Hawkridge
November 20, 2025
Today's number is... -1.6
My Core Leadership Model, the composite that blends short, intermediate, and long-term breadth, has slipped back under zero and is moving toward the weak leadership zone.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The top panel plots the S&P 500 daily close in black.
The lower panel shows the Core Leadership Model as a black line.
Readings above +4 (green line) mark Strong Leadership. Readings below –4 (red line) mark Weak Leadership.
The Takeaway: Leadership is cooling.
A reading of -1.6 tells us leadership is slipping together across all three timeframes, from short-term rotations to long-term trend drivers.
This is also the lowest reading since April 2025. This does not mean the trend is broken. It does mean fewer stocks are carrying the advance, which is what you see when the market loses leadership strength beneath the surface.
Strong bull markets usually hold above zero. When the model falls under that midpoint, pullbacks often turn choppy, and the market becomes more selective.
If the model turns higher from here, the trend stays supported.
If it sinks toward -4 and stays there, the risk of a deeper reset rises.
Right now, this is early weakness, not a full breakdown.
Leadership has softened, but it has not collapsed. The next push will show whether the bulls want to rebuild strength or hand the momentum to the bears.
So are the bulls ready to step up, or are they about to give the ball away?
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