Six of the eight signals in the Bull Market Checklist remain positive, but two have now flipped bearish as risk appetite and global participation deteriorate during the latest market price action.
Here’s the table:
Let's break down what the table shows:
The table lists eight indicators used in the Bull Market Checklist.
Green shading marks bullish conditions. Yellow shading marks indicators on watch. Red shading marks bearish readings.
The bottom row displays the Bull Market Checklist score and the current market regime.
The Takeaway: The checklist weakened this week. Six of eight signals remain positive. Two have flipped. The regime has shifted from confirmed bull market to bull market trend under review.
Price has not broken yet. The S&P 500 finished near 6,740. The index remains above the key levels and above a rising 200-day moving average that has trended higher for 212 straight sessions. The long term trend still points higher.
But risk appetite has flipped. The Risk Regime reading fell to -0.04 and slipped below the zero line, triggering a risk-off signal. The indicator sat at +0.27 just last week. That support is now gone. When this measure drops below zero, defensive positioning starts to outweigh risk-taking.
And global participation has also broken. Only 20.9% of MSCI ACWI markets now trade above their 50-day moving averages, down sharply from 81.4% last week. That sits deep below the 60% level that normally reflects healthy participation. Weakness is now spreading across global markets.
Not everything has failed, but the checklist is no longer clean. When signals start flipping, risk management moves to the front of the playbook.
The bull market trend is now being tested. Do buyers step back in, or do more signals start to flip?
Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts
Steve walked through live trades in Coinbase, Amazon, Exxon, and more, including a 400% return in a matter of days. If you missed the session, the replay is up now.
