The ratio of inflation-protected Treasury bonds vs. 7–10 year Treasury bonds just reached 1.17 as it pushes to fresh 52-week highs.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The chart displays the ratio of inflation-protected Treasury bonds vs. 7–10 year Treasury bonds as a black line.
A faint grey line in the background displays the Energy sector.
The Takeaway: The ratio of inflation-protected Treasuries vs. intermediate Treasuries just pushed to 1.17 and printed a new 52-week high.
Inflation-linked bonds are leading Treasuries again.
The ratio bottomed during the 2020 washout and has been building higher lows ever since, working back toward a declining trendline that turned the prior rally lower. Buyers have now pushed through that line and the ratio is sitting at new highs.
When inflation protection starts outperforming traditional Treasuries, investors are demanding protection against rising prices instead of locking in fixed yields.
Equities are already echoing that shift.
Energy stocks are ripping higher in 2026, and the sector’s trend runs sharply upward in the background of the chart while the ratio pushes to new highs.
Energy stocks often strengthen when inflation pressure builds because the sector sits closest to commodity markets. When oil and fuel prices rise, those costs work their way directly through transportation, production, and the broader economy.
So, is the market starting to price hotter inflation again?
Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts
Jason Perz, Sam Gatlin, and JC Parets went live. They covered where energy goes from here, what's setting up behind it, and the position sizing framework that separates the traders who make money in commodity cycles from the ones who don't.
