Bears Keep Outnumbering Bulls 🐻

Today's number is... 5

That’s 5 consecutive weeks AAII survey Bears have outnumbered Bulls.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The top panel plots the S&P 500 weekly close in black.
• Gray vertical lines highlight weeks when the index made new all-time highs.
• The middle panel shows the number of consecutive weeks where the AAII survey reported more Bears than Bulls.
• The bottom panel plots the AAII Bull-Bear Spread. Readings above zero mean more Bulls than Bears; below zero means more Bears than Bulls.

The Takeaway: We’ve now seen 5 straight weeks with more Bears than Bulls in the AAII survey.

And it’s happening while the S&P 500 prints all-time highs.

That’s not fear of a breakdown.

It’s fear of heights.

Retail isn’t selling weakness.

They’re trying to fade strength, because they don’t trust it.

But doubt like this doesn’t stop bull markets. It fuels them!

At some point, Bears will have to flip, unless they’re early to something the chart hasn’t priced in yet.

If this is fear… what does confidence look like?

Let me know! 

Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts

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