959 Days in the Desert 🌵

Today's number is... 959

That’s how many trading days the Russell 2000 has gone without making a new all-time high.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The top panel plots the Russell 2000 index in black, with horizontal lines marking prior all-time highs.
• The middle panel shows the drawdown from all-time highs in red.
• The bottom panel tracks the consecutive days since the Russell 2000 last made a new all-time high in blue.

The Takeaway: This is one of the longest bear markets small caps have ever experienced

Not because they fell the hardest, but because they’ve taken the longest to recover.

959 days without a new high matches the post-GFC record.

The max drawdown during this stretch was –33%. That’s deep, but not unprecedented.

What sets this one apart is the time spent below the highs.

Almost four full years of chop, failed breakouts, and underperformance.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are already printing all-time highs.

If the Russell 2000 finally clears that 242 ceiling, it’s not just a breakout.

It’s a structural shift.

The end of a historic drought.

And a sign that risk is broadening out across the market.

The way I learnt it was that the bigger the base, the higher in space.

So, what happens if it finally lifts off?

Let me know! 

Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts

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